Civil Resistance: It's a Percentages Game
Turns out, social change is a percentages game.
And I’m not talking about 50.1% through the voting booth.
Have you heard about the 3.5% rule? Until recently, neither had I, and the inner Malcolm Gladwell in me was fascinated; this small number represents a tipping point for the ability of civil resistance to catalyze dramatic social change.
The rule posits that no government can withstand a challenge from 3.5% of its population without accommodating its demands for change or, on the far side of things, relinquishing power. A defining factor of this type of protest is that it must be non-violent in nature.
Now, 3.5% doesn’t seem significant enough to create social change, but I’m reminded of the ability of consumer boycotts to create big impact through similar small numbers. If a boycott curtails a company’s sales by even a couple percentage points, this disproportionately and negatively affects profitability as it’s those last few percentage points of sales that deliver an outsized amount of net income. Just as Target Stores about it.
Erica Chenoweth, a professor of public policy at Harvard Kennedy School, is credited for the research that supports this rule.
Chenoweth’s research covered the period from 1900 – 2006 and was exemplified by real-world examples from the People Power Protests in the Philippines to the Velvet Revolution in Czechoslovakia and the Singing Revolution in the Baltic countries of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, among others.
(I wonder if that last one is what the Beatles were singing about?)
This emboldening knowledge comes to me at a critical juncture, and I hope it does for you as well. I’ve been a consistent participant of public protests for a long time and, while it makes me feel good to show up and stand up, I’m always left with a lingering question: Am I making any real difference by spending my time doing this?
So, it’s reassuring to know these protests can work. We just need to get enough people to join in. And we just need to keep after it.
If you are thinking in terms of today (I certainly am), the nationwide No Kings protests on June 14 engaged 4-6 million people across the country, or 1 to 2% of our population. According to some, it represents the largest single-day, mass protest in our country’s history. (The first Earth Day in 1970 drew 20 million protestors on behalf of the environment, but let's not get into a tussle over "most," folks.)
Getting to 3.5% will require about 11 million citizens in the U.S to actively participate in the protests in a sustained way. And as that first Earth Day demonstrates, we can clear that bar IF WE WANT TO.
It’s important to note this should be viewed as a rule of thumb and not as a physical law, since it’s not 100% guaranteed to ensure political change because it is also dependent upon other factors.
But overall, the evidence-based research shows that showing up matters.
As Chenoweth says in a TEDx talk, “The data are clear. When people rely on civil resistance, their numbers grow. And when large numbers of people remove their cooperation from an oppressive system, the odds are ever in their favor.
“These are often more inclusive and representative in terms of gender, age, race, political party, class, and the rural-urban distinction. Civil resistance allows people of all different physical abilities to participate, so this can include the elderly, people with disabilities, women, children, and anyone who wants to.”
The next nationwide protests are scheduled for July 17.
What will you be doing that day?
Godspeed, friends.
Russ
💬 Think About It
“Never be afraid to raise your voice for honesty and truth and compassion against injustice and lying and greed. If people all over the world...would do this, it would change the earth.” William Faulkner
💥 Quick Hits
• Can Elon grok this? – On the environmental justice front, the NAACP and environmental groups will be suing Elon Musk's xAI for creating pollution in predominantly Black communities in Memphis, TN. (Associated Press)
• More Elon because why not? – Since we're poking at Elon this issue – such an easy target these days – hats off to the Brits for the cheeky anti-Elon advertising they're creating. (New York Times gift link)
• And a shout-out for Godspeed – Yuval Ackerman of Ethical Emails is one of the sharpest strategists on email around, so it was gratifying when she gave Godspeed a shout-out as one of three B Corp newsletters she's currently digging. She writes a pretty rad newsletter herself. Check it out. (Ethical Emails)
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